Friday, May 23, 2008

CATTLE HERD LIQUIDATION SEEN AS TROUBLING SIGN

(Brownfield Network) -- The Daily Livestock Report published by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange earlier this week noted troubling evidence of cattle herd liquidation. The report's authors noted an increased pace of cattle slaughter this year amid steadily climbing feed costs. "Despite high cow slaughter rates in 2006 and 2007, current cow slaughter remains well above year ago levels," the Report said. DTN Chief Livestock Analyst John Harrington told Brownfield the slowly dwindling U.S. cattle herd hasn’t yet fully translated into higher costs to consumers. And when that happens, Harrington suggested the entire dynamic of beef consumption in America could change. "Beef may become very expensive and something you eat relatively rarely and more likely in a restaurant than anyplace else," Harrington said. "I'm not predicting that, but certainly that's a concern." Harrington pointed out the average age of beef producers is getting older, not younger, reducing the incentive to ramp production back up even when prices do improve. As for the possibility of big future beef demand increases, Harrington emphasized the most potential still lies overseas. And he noted sanitary and phytosanitary trade barriers still limit opportunities for U.S. beef in that arena.